From: Maria
Sent: 8/3/2016 8:27 AM
To: lifelines@paprolife.org
Subject: 10 PA Counties Critical for Stopping Pro-Abortion Hillary Clinton
Dear Pro-Life Leaders,
Political experts have identified 10 Pennsylvania counties that are critical to stopping pro-abortion Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton from winning the White House. If you live in the following counties, please contact me so that I can help you in your county. This information is taken from a Tribune-Review article which you can read in its entirety at http://triblive.com/news/allegheny/10668109-74/counties-trump-county . Thank you so much for helping to ensure that PA votes pro-life!
All the best,
Maria V. Gallagher
Legislative/PAC Director
Pennsylvania Pro-Life Federation
717-541-0034
Here are the 10 counties experts identified as critical for a Republican win.
Bucks County: All agreed Bucks is the perfect gauge with the right mix of working class and suburban voters to see how the state is trending.
"Trump is really going to need to increase the share of the vote of the working-class Democrat and independent voters," Olson said. "They are the sort of person you will see in Lower Bucks. If he is winning them in this county, then he is doing well in Lackawanna, Luzerne and Northampton in the east."
Greene and Cambria counties: These two counties showed the largest swings toward Republicans from 2004 to 2012, Trende said. But there also was a drop-off of 7,000 votes in 2012. Voters who didn't show up for Romney have to show up for Trump to offset heavily Democratic Philadelphia's large population, Trende said.
Washington and Westmoreland counties: "Washington and Westmoreland counties have been going Republican since 1996, but they need to go in a bigger way for Trump to win," Olson said.
Westmoreland is more of a suburban county and Washington is home to voters who would have been blue-collar Democrats 30 years ago, he said.
"Of the two, you are likely looking at Washington, where you are going to be likelier to find the increase in turnout and the swing toward Trump that he is going to need," Olson said.
Lackawanna County: This county is going to go Democratic, but it is one of Trump's biggest county wins in the Republican primary, Wasserman said.
Instead of losing by more than 20 points, Wasserman said losing by 15 points or less could help Trump carry the state. "This would be one to look at the margins," he said.
Luzerne County: "This county is traditionally Democratic, but can Hillary bring that home with the economic and social issues tugging at her? This could be the year it goes for Trump," Wasserman said.
Clinton bested rival Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by fewer than 2,000 votes in the Democratic primary. What's more, that's 27,000 fewer votes than she received in the 2008 Democratic primary.
"Luzerne is a useful county to watch," Kondik said. "It is not prosperous and has a fairly high percentage of white residents. If Trump is re-writing the state's playbook, that would seem like a county he could potentially carry."
Dauphin County: "This county showed the largest swing in the state from Kerry to Obama; if it moves back, that suggests a large portion of the Obama phenomenon was Obama-specific," Trende said.
York and Lancaster counties: "The triangle of Lancaster, Dauphin and York are the fastest-growing Hispanic population in the state, albeit still smaller than national trends," Wasserman said. Clinton's success relies on her ability to reach out to this community.
"If we start seeing voters in these 10 counties leaning (toward) Trump, we may be looking at something bigger — a new political realignment for both parties across the country," Brown said.
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